Friday, 2 October 2015

Bayes and Fisher the two explorers and the Tiger.

This is an update of the joke about the two explorers and the Tiger.

Bayes and Fisher are walking through a forest.  Suddenly, they see a tiger in the distance, running towards them.  They turn and start running away.  Bayes stops, takes some running shoes from his bag, and starts putting them on.        “What are you doing?” says Fisher.  “Do you think you will run fast than the tiger with those?”        “I don’t have to run faster than the tiger,” Bayes says.  “I just have to run faster than you.”

This was inspired by a referee commenting that I had not proved my hypothesis about H5N8 influenza being spread by wild birds and not through domestic poultry. My opinion was I didn't have to prove my hypothesis (you never can prove a hypothesis). I just had to show that my hypothesis was much more likely than the referee's alternative which I did, although it was rejected as usual. Finally the referee was shown to be wrong and there are a whole string of papers showing I was right.

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