Friday 21 May 2010

Quick Survey of Facebuzz

Facebuzz is a site which randomly connects people with video streaming and which can be connected to Facebook. You activate your camera and it links you to other users on the network. Is this a useful social tool or something that will turn into another dark corner of the internet. My bet was on the later and that it would not promote any kind of social involvement. So in one hour of clicking what did I find:

  • 70 Male
  • 34 No camera (this will be an over-estimate as some will be repeats)
  • 19 Nude males
  • 8 FemBots - video clips of near naked women 
  • 5 Female members
  • Total 138 connections

Thursday 6 May 2010

Playing with opinion polls

Now assuming that voting intention polls actually sample properly and there is no Shy Tory Factor and Shy Labour Factor and assuming a smooth national swing (I know I should do it on a constituency basis) then averaging all of the polls for the week coming up to the election from all of the pollsters and using the BBC uniform swing predictor this gives the following results;

Cons: 34.2% CI 33.6% - 34.8%
Lab: 27.2% CI 26.5% - 27.9%
Lib-Dem: 28.6% CI 27.9% - 29.3%

This equates to the ranges of seat numbers based of the other parties getting minimum share when one party gets maximum share.

Cons: 263-285
Lab: 249-273
Lib-Dem: 85-99
Others: 28

So you cannot predict who will be the largest party on the poll data